What are the roulette odds of the ball landing in the same colour ten times in a row? What about landing on the same number twice? Let´s take a look, and then we´ll explain how this relates to the Gambler´s Fallacy, or the Monte Carlo Fallacy- the belief that the odds of a black number coming in increase, the more times you see red.
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Well, the probability is easy to work out. Se below for details.
Jul 12, 2016 Playing the red and black color on roulette. As info: Red/Black odds are not 50% as many people can think, but 48,6% as there is the number Zero (0 green). On this game, I'll select the color to.
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Let´s look at a European Roulette wheel. Over a single spin, the odds of a red number coming up are 18/37, or 1 in 2.06. Over 2 spins, the odds of 2 reds coming in are 1 in 2.06x2.06, or 4.24.
The odds of seeing 10 reds in succession are 1 in (2.06)10 = 1 in 1376.
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Pretty low odds that you´ll ever see this, in other words. But that doesn´t mean it isn´t going to happen. In fact, the longest number of reds in a row was recorded in an American Casino in 1943 when 32 came up in a row. Now imagine that you were betting the Martingale that day! The odds of seeing that are 1 in 11 million, or thereabouts by the way.
Another huge streak (this time on black) was seen by the players at the Casino in Monte Carlo who saw 26 blacks in a row on the table on 18 August 1913. The odds of this happening? A mere 1 in 145,000.
And this gave name to the Monte Carlo Fallacy, otherwise known as the Gambler´s Fallacy, as the longer the streak went on, more and more people started piling their chips on to red. And they lost a lot of money.
So what happened?
Gambler´s Fallacy
The important thing to understand and to get your head around, is that these are odds over multiple spins. And here´s the thing. In roulette, you can´t bet on what is going to happen over 10 spins, you can only bet on the next spin. And thus the odds are always the same - 18/37, whether the red came in 10 times previously or not. The wheel has no memory from spin to spin. It is not a living thing.
When you are betting on one spin, the odds are for one spin, and for one spin only.
One things for sure about the Gambler´s Falllacy- the casinos love it! Don´t get sucked in, keep your thinking hat on.
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One thing's for sure- there are plenty of people who have worked out that the odds are with the casino on roulette, and have opted to scam the casinos instead, like the roulette scam in Ohio. Just be warned- that's illegal. They got busted.
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Using Roulette Systems to Win
Roulette is a random game where past spins have NO bearing on future spins. This means that systems that by their very nature use mathematical equations that take into account previous data to determine future events, cannot be used to win roulette. Don’t be fooled by the saying, “odds are it’s gotta be (red/black) this time because, look how many times it’s hit (red/black) already. They put that previous data to lure in quick bets to trick the players into thinking past results have bearing, they don’t!
This means that you cannot use a roulette system to guarantee a win or beat roulette odds. There are, however, many people who swear by roulette systems (martingale etc). These systems do provide a methodical approach to betting which can help you to play by a system, as opposed to emotion. As long as you keep in mind that these systems cannot guarantee you to win or beat the odds of the game, they can be useful in managing your betting strategy and they may be worthwhile for you to use.
The ultimate reason systems do not work is they tell you to bet more until you win – but the casino always has a cap on how much you can bet – and likely do you.
Play European Roulette
There are different variations of the game of roulette and simply by choosing a variation wisely, you can beat the odds of the game to a certain degree. American roulette has 38 numbered slots including the zero and the double zero, while European roulette has 37 slots including the single zero. The difference between the set-up of the two games, in terms of the number of slots on the wheel, influences your odds dramatically. The house edge in a game of American roulette is 5.26%, while the house edge in a game of European roulette is much lower at 2.63%.
If you’re playing at online casinos don’t play unless European Roulette is offered. On land based casinos they will put the European Roulette tables in the hard to find areas, if they have them at all. There’s a reason behind this trickery. I’m still amazed how many play American roulette when the only difference is that European roulette has worse odds, the addition of the (00). Do you want to lose 2.6% or 6% on every bet? Play European tables!
Play the En Prison Rule
How To Beat Roulette Machines
When playing the game of European roulette, you should make use of the optional en prison rule. This rule states that if you place money on an even money bet and the ball lands on the zero, your bet is held over until the next spin. If you win your bet at that point, you will win back your bet and if you lose it at that point, you will lose your bet. By making use of the en prison rule, you can further beat the house edge and push it from 2.63% down to 1.35%.
Choosing your Bets
Make sure to choose your bets wisely. If you are playing American roulette, placing a bet on the five numbered bet has a house edge of 7.89% and should be avoided. You need to place bets according to your bankroll. Placing a straight up bet has odds of 37 to 1 and pays out at 35 to 1. Even money bets (odd or even, red or black, high or low) are much safer bets, but only pay out at 1 to 1 if you win. Make sure to manage your bankroll wisely and bet in a way that will allow you to maximize your opportunities to win and beat the odds. In the same vain, make sure to set limits for yourself. Set limits of how much you are prepared to lose, as well as a goal of how much you expect to win. Make sure to play according to your plan and stick to all the limits that you set yourself before you start to play. I know players that start with a bankroll of $20,000 (a lot to them) and they broke within 10 spins.
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How To Win At Roulette
While these strategies to beat roulette seem simplistic in nature, so is the game therefore it is made for the recreational gambler who doesn’t want to learn lots of rules to play. Unfortunately the more rules, bets, and strategies the better your odds.